Here is a fact that most Markham homeowners and buyers have not fully absorbed. Ontario is now in a genuinely unique position within Canada's housing market. While home prices are rising in most of the country, Ontario, along with BC, is one of the only provinces where prices continue to decline in 2026.
Understanding why, and what it means for Markham specifically, is essential for anyone making a real estate decision in this market right now. Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, breaks down the national picture and Markham's specific position within it.
The National Picture — Ontario Stands Apart
Ontario is the only province CREA expects to see sales rise this year. But on the price side, the picture is different. CMHC's Housing Market Outlook notes that Ontario deviates from the national trend, with prices likely to keep falling in 2026, especially in the most expensive urban centres due to high inventory and muted sales, before starting to recover in 2027.
The national average home price is forecast to rise by 1.1% on an annual basis to $686,710 in 2026. This national figure is the result of declines of less than 1% in BC and Ontario offset by ongoing but slowing price growth in other provinces. Standout provinces on the price side include Alberta, where prices turned a corner and resumed rising in the second quarter, and Newfoundland and Labrador, which remains the country's last full seller's market.
Why Ontario Prices Are Still Falling
The reason Ontario prices continue to decline while most of the country recovers comes down to three factors specific to Ontario's market.
High Inventory From Pre-Construction Wave
The 2021-2022 pre-construction condo boom is completing in 2025-2026, flooding resale and rental markets with new supply precisely when demand has moderated. Inventory overhang concentrates in Toronto and the GTA.
Affordability Limits Being Tested
Ontario and BC are Canada's most expensive markets. Price corrections are more visible in expensive markets where inventory is higher, while comparatively affordable markets are proving more resilient.
Population Growth Slowdown
Immigration cuts have hit Ontario's demand harder than provinces where population growth was less dependent on the immigration flows that have been reduced.
Investor Retreat
Condo investor cohort retreat has compounded the softness in the segment most exposed to Ontario's inventory overhang.
Neeraj Moolchandani on Ontario's Contrarian Buyer Opportunity in Markham
Neeraj Moolchandani, REALTOR® at Kaizen Real Estate, works alongside Markham buyers navigating exactly the situation this article describes. His specialty is translating complex market dynamics into a clear plan of action, whether that involves timing, negotiation strategy, or protecting long-term family wealth.
When Neeraj advises clients on ontario's contrarian buyer opportunity in markham, the conversation always starts with what matters most to the family, not what the market is doing this week. That is the difference between transactional advice and the kind of counsel Markham buyers return to for a decade.
The Contrarian Opportunity
Here is the reframe that sophisticated buyers understand. Ontario being the only province where prices are still falling is not a reason to avoid Markham. It is the reason Markham represents a specific, time-limited opportunity.
The Provinces That Have Already Passed Their Window
The provinces where prices are already rising, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Atlantic Canada, have already passed their buying opportunity. The buyers who wanted to enter those markets at the bottom missed the window. Prices are now climbing. Ontario, by contrast, is still in the correction, which means the buying window that has closed elsewhere in Canada remains open in Ontario, and specifically in premium Ontario markets like Markham.
The 2027 Recovery Forecast
The critical insight: Ontario's price decline is forecast to end and reverse in 2027. CMHC and CREA both project Ontario prices stabilizing and beginning to recover in 2027 as the inventory overhang clears and pent-up demand releases. This means the current window, the period where Ontario prices are still declining while the rest of Canada has already turned, is the last phase of the correction before recovery.
Buyers who enter Markham's market during this final correction phase, with 1,220 active listings, buyer-favourable conditions, and asking prices down approximately 10% year-over-year, are positioning at the bottom of a market that the national forecasters expect to recover in 2027. This is the contrarian opportunity that the "Ontario is the only province where prices are falling" headline actually represents. The last province still offering correction-level pricing, in a premium city, before the recovery that forecasters see coming.
Seize Ontario's Last Correction Window
The last province still offering correction pricing. The last window before the forecasted 2027 recovery. Book a private consultation with the Kaizen Real Estate Team.
Markham's Position for the Recovery
Ontario is now the key engine of whatever recovery materializes in the second half of the year. Markham, as the most economically dynamic city in Ontario's most economically significant region, is positioned to lead that recovery. The technology employment concentration, York University's Markham Campus expansion, IndyCar destination-city identity, and Downtown Markham's Remington Group master plan all support a recovery trajectory that will likely outperform less economically-distinct Ontario markets.
Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, helps buyers understand the national context that makes Markham's current market a specific, time-limited opportunity rather than a reason for caution.