The Bank of Canada announced on July 15, 2026, that it is holding its interest rate at 2.25%. The sixth consecutive hold. The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is Wednesday, September 2, 2026.
For Markham buyers and sellers, the message from the decision is one of continued stability, and the September 2 date is now the next inflection point to watch. Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, breaks down what the sixth consecutive hold means for the market.
What the Bank Actually Said
On July 15, the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive announcement. The Governing Council judged that the current policy rate remained appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to the 2% target, citing higher oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East, ongoing US trade policy uncertainty, and a Canadian economy that showed clear signs of resuming growth in the second quarter after stalling for much of the past year.
The Bank's Own Words
"Canada's economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is picking up and inflation is projected to ease gradually from its recent spike. There are still important risks and uncertainties related to the war in the Middle East and US trade policy."
The Bank left its 2026 growth projection at 0.7%, rising to 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028. The Bank projects inflation easing toward its 2% target in early 2027. Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that rate hikes remain possible if oil prices spike further, maintaining the two-way risk posture that has characterized the Bank's recent communications. Markets expect the BoC to remain on hold through most of 2026 and potentially into 2027.
What This Means for Markham Mortgage Holders
On July 15, 2026, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% for the 6th consecutive decision. Most bank prime rates remain at 4.45%, excluding lender discounts on variable mortgage rates.
Variable Rate Holders
Because the policy rate did not move, bank prime rates stayed put. Variable mortgage rates and home equity lines of credit are unchanged. Payment stays the same. No relief from a cut and no increase from a hike. The same stable environment persists.
Fixed Rate Seekers
Fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields rather than the policy rate. Middle East conflict effects on oil prices create upward pressure on bond yields, meaning fixed rates could edge higher if energy-driven inflation concerns intensify.
The Practical Effect
For most borrowers, the practical effect of the hold is time, not savings. Roughly seven weeks to compare lenders and secure a rate hold before the September 2 decision.
Rate Hold Strategy
Buyers who have found the right property should consider locking in today's fixed rate to protect against the upside risk of fixed-rate creep between now and September 2.
Neeraj Moolchandani on Interest Rate Timing and Markham Real Estate Strategy
Neeraj Moolchandani, REALTOR® at Kaizen Real Estate, works alongside Markham clients navigating exactly the situation this article describes. His specialty is translating complex market dynamics into a clear plan of action, whether that involves timing, negotiation strategy, or protecting long-term family wealth.
When Neeraj advises clients on interest rate timing and markham real estate strategy, the conversation always starts with what matters most to the family, not what the market is doing this week. That is the difference between transactional advice and the kind of counsel Markham clients return to for a decade.
What to Watch for September 2
Bond markets price a high probability of no change on September 2, with a 13% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. By October 28, markets imply a 50% chance of a hike.
The September 2 decision is the next inflection point. The most realistic scenario, according to current forecasts, is another hold. A prolonged pause rather than a sharp rate increase. However, if inflation accelerates or economic growth surprises to the upside, the probability of a hike increases as the year progresses. The October 28 decision, currently priced with a 50% hike probability, is where the risk of the Bank's first move in the tightening direction becomes genuinely meaningful.
What This Means for Markham Buyers and Sellers
The sixth consecutive hold reinforces the strategic picture that has been developing all year. The rate environment is stable. Buyers who have been waiting for further cuts are receiving a clear signal that those cuts are not arriving on schedule, and that the next move is at least as likely to be a hike as a cut. This is the environment in which sidelined buyers convert to active buyers, because the rationale for continued waiting weakens with every hold.
At True North, we're seeing a close to 60% month-over-month uptick in home purchases, with buyers who are tired of trying to time the market instead taking advantage of rate deals and stable home prices. This buyer conversion is beginning to show up in the market data. GTA sales momentum has been positive month-over-month through the spring and early summer.
For Markham sellers, the stable rate environment supports sustained buyer activity through the summer and into the historically strong fall market. The window between now and September 2, with rates confirmed stable, inventory still buyer-favourable, and the fall demand surge approaching, is a genuinely favourable time to list a well-priced Markham property.
Navigate the Rate Environment With Markham's Top Team
Seven weeks to September 2. Rates confirmed stable. Inventory still buyer-favourable. Book a private consultation with the Kaizen Real Estate Team.
The July to September Action Window
For Markham buyers, the seven weeks until September 2 provide time to compare lenders, secure a rate hold, and act on the current buyer-market conditions before the fall demand surge and the growing hike risk in the October to December window potentially reduce buyer leverage. For sellers, the same window is a strategic listing period. The stable rate environment supports buyer conversion, and the approaching fall demand surge means demand-side momentum favours well-priced summer listings that establish presence before September activity intensifies.
Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, tracks every Bank of Canada decision and its implications for the Markham market.