Let’s be direct. The buyer’s market that exists in Markham right now — 755 active listings, 33 days average on market, conditional offers accepted routinely, homes selling at 97% of list price — is exceptional by the standards of the past decade. This kind of leverage has not been available to Markham buyers since 2018. The buyers who are using it are negotiating better prices, getting conditions accepted, taking their time, and building the financial foundation of their purchases with a clarity that was simply not available during the 2020 to 2022 peak.

The expiry date on this advantage is not a specific calendar date. It is a set of conditions that, when they materialize — and based on the data Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, tracks daily, several of them are materializing — the buyer’s advantage begins to compress.

What Is Already Changing

In May 2026, GTA home sales increased 6.3% year-over-year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up 10% month-over-month and new listings were down 2.1% — pointing to a monthly tightening of market conditions. The benchmark price rose 0.3% month-over-month to $946,500. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld said: “This should see the price trend flatten and ultimately trend upward in the months ahead.” The tightening is already occurring.

The Five Conditions That Will Reduce Buyer Leverage

1. Trade clarity. If Canada and the United States reach a trade framework that reduces tariff uncertainty, 100,000+ GTA buyers currently sidelined by employment uncertainty begin re-entering the market simultaneously. This is the highest-impact potential demand catalyst.

2. Bank of Canada cut or confirmed hold. CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook notes that resale activity will pick up as buyers act ahead of expected higher mortgage rates in 2027. Whether rates fall or rise, both scenarios motivate buyers to act — either for improved affordability or to lock in current rates before they disappear.

3. The HST rebate window closing. The March 31, 2027 expiry of the 13% HST rebate of up to $130,000 for new construction purchases creates a hard deadline that concentrates demand into the final months of the window. The closer we get to March 31, 2027, the more urgency new construction buyers will feel.

4. Supply cliff materializing. After record completions in 2025, condo completions are projected to fall to 17,487 units in 2026 — a 44% decline from the 2025 record high. As current completion volumes are absorbed and the future supply pipeline’s thinness becomes visible, inventory levels will compress.

5. Seasonal momentum. Spring and early fall are historically the GTA’s highest-activity real estate seasons. If summer 2026 — energized by FIFA, IndyCar, and general post-uncertainty optimism — maintains the improved sales velocity already visible in May, the buyer’s advantage visible in June will be meaningfully reduced by September.

The Decision Framework — Your Personal Expiry Date

Every buyer’s window has a unique expiry date based on their specific situation.

• School catchment buyers (Wismer Commons for Bur Oak, Cornell for Bill Hogarth) do not have the luxury of waiting for macro clarity. The Bur Oak catchment homes available today may not be available in six months, and the next available listing may command a higher price in a tighter market.
• Investors evaluating Downtown Markham condos have the HST rebate window as their hard deadline — March 31, 2027. That deadline compresses the decision timeline regardless of macro conditions.
• First-time buyers who have maxed their FHSA and RRSP HBP savings — who are financially ready and have identified the right community — do not benefit from continued waiting. Each month of additional rent paid is a month of equity not built, at a time when the buyer’s market is providing negotiating advantages that will progressively diminish.

Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, helps buyers evaluate their specific expiry date — the point at which their personal situation and market conditions align to make delay more costly than action.