TRREB has highlighted that over 100,000 GTA buyers are currently waiting on the sidelines — representing significant pent-up demand that could re-enter the market once prices stabilize and economic uncertainty eases. In a market where 6,583 homes sold across the entire GTA in May 2026, that sideline cohort represents more than 15 months of sales volume at current rates — buyers who are financially ready, who have done their research, and who have decided to wait for a signal that has not yet arrived.

Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, has been watching the composition of this sideline cohort and tracking what will trigger their re-entry. Here is the complete picture.

Who Is Actually on the Sidelines

The trade-uncertainty buyer. This buyer has secure employment and adequate savings but works in a sector exposed to US tariff risk. They are not uncertain about whether they want to buy in Markham — they are uncertain about whether their employment will remain stable. TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer emphasizes that job security and economic stability are the final hurdles. As households gain confidence in their employment outlook, pent-up demand is expected to translate into increased sales activity.

The “rates will fall further” buyer. This buyer has been waiting since early 2024 for mortgage rates to return to 2020–2021 pandemic-era levels. They have watched the Bank of Canada cut nine times and hold five times, bringing the policy rate to 2.25% — and are beginning to understand that 1.25% rates were a once-in-a-generation anomaly, not a baseline to return to. When this buyer accepts that current rates are the new normal rather than a temporary elevation, they convert.

The “prices will fall more” buyer. This buyer read the 2022–2024 correction headlines, decided the market was in freefall, and has been waiting for a bottom. They have watched prices correct 10% from the 2022 peak and hold at current levels with emerging spring momentum. The gap between their target price and current market reality is narrowing.

The first-time buyer with accumulating savings. The increase of the insured mortgage cap to $1.5 million and 30-year amortizations are expected to provide a “safety valve” for first-time buyers. Those who opened FHSAs in 2023 now have $24,000 or more accumulated tax-free. Combined with RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan access of up to $60,000, many first-time buyers are approaching the down payment threshold for a Markham condo purchase for the first time.

What Triggers Pent-Up Demand to Release

Trade clarity. A definitive Canada-US trade framework that reduces uncertainty affecting Ontario’s economy would release the trade-uncertainty buyer segment rapidly. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld said: “Recovery would be further bolstered by positive news on the trade front along with an easing of geopolitical tensions and related uncertainty.” Everyone who was waiting for the same signal enters at approximately the same time.

Sustained price stabilization. The benchmark price rose 0.3% month-over-month to $946,500 in May 2026. On a seasonally adjusted basis, May home sales were up 10% month-over-month and new listings were down 2.1% — pointing to monthly tightening. Two or three consecutive months of price stabilization shifts the “prices will fall further” buyer from waiting to acting.

Further rate certainty. The Bank of Canada’s June 10 hold at 2.25% — the fifth consecutive hold — provides the stability that some buyers need. When rates have been unchanged for five consecutive decisions, the argument that “rates might fall more before I buy” becomes progressively weaker.

The Markham Implication — Why the Sideline Release Matters Here

Markham currently has 755 active listings and 33 days average days on market — a buyer’s market that is visibly tightening from the February 2026 peak. When pent-up demand releases, the first communities to feel demand pressure will be those with the strongest fundamental drivers. In Markham, those communities are the Bur Oak Secondary School catchment in Wismer Commons and Greensborough, the Markham Stouffville Hospital corridor in Cornell, and the premium freehold communities of Box Grove and Unionville.

Michael John Lau, top real estate agent in Markham Ontario, is actively preparing buyer clients to act decisively when the pent-up demand trigger events materialize — because the buyers who position themselves before the release benefit from the full advantage of the current buyer’s market. Buyers who wait for the release itself are competing in a materially changed environment.