The Bank of Canada just made its June 10, 2026 announcement: a hold at 2.25% for the fifth consecutive time in 2026. The Bank also held in January, March, and April. In his opening statement, Governor Tiff Macklem said: “Since our April decision, the economic impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has increased. Higher energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated. Against this backdrop, the Canadian economy has remained soft and inflation has increased.”

Here is what Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani, top real estate agents in Markham Ontario and the Kaizen Real Estate Team, think about what this means — plainly, honestly, and specifically for Markham buyers and sellers acting in this market today.

The Kaizen Team’s Read on the Decision

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem made it clear that the next move could go in either direction — a cut if US tariffs escalate and hit the Canadian economy harder, or a hike if energy-driven inflation from the Middle East conflict becomes entrenched. This is two-way risk explicitly acknowledged by the Bank itself.

Our read: the Bank will hold at 2.25% through the July 15 meeting as well, unless the Middle East situation materially escalates or Q2 GDP data shows a recovery that eases the stagflation concern. The next Monetary Policy Report on July 15 will tell us significantly more.

What This Means for Markham Variable Rate Mortgage Holders

If you have a variable rate mortgage in Markham, nothing changes today. Prime rate stays at 4.45%. The rate on your variable mortgage — typically prime minus 0.5% to 0.75% for well-qualified borrowers — stays in the 3.70% to 3.95% range.

The risk we are watching for variable rate holders is the hike scenario. On a $900,000 variable rate mortgage, a 0.5% hike adds approximately $370 per month. A 0.75% hike adds approximately $550 per month. Variable rate holders should have this scenario stress-tested in their budget today, not when the announcement comes.

What This Means for Markham Fixed Rate Mortgage Seekers

Today’s hold is broadly neutral for fixed mortgage rates, which are priced off Government of Canada bond yields rather than directly off the overnight rate. The Bank’s explicit acknowledgment of two-way risk will keep bond market uncertainty elevated, meaning fixed rates are unlikely to fall materially in the near term. Five-year fixed rates are currently available in the 4.3% to 4.8% range across major lenders.

The Kaizen Team’s perspective: if you are a Markham buyer who has found the right property and your personal finances support the purchase, locking into today’s fixed rate environment is a reasonable decision. You are not betting on rates falling further — because the honest assessment is that the next move is more likely flat or up than down based on current consensus.

What This Means for Markham Buyers Right Now

The rate environment has been stable at 2.25% since October 2025. Every month that passes, the argument for “waiting for rates to drop further” weakens — because there is no credible current consensus that rates will drop further before they might go up. Markham has 755 active listings, 33 days on market, conditional offers accepted routinely, and homes selling at 97% of list price. The combination of stable rates, abundant inventory, negotiating leverage, and the HST rebate window still open (sign before March 31, 2027) is a window that will not persist indefinitely.

BMO Economics managing director Benjamin Reitzes noted that the Bank’s language describing the economy as “weak” was a shift from prior statements, likely reflecting the Q1 GDP contraction. A weakening economy with stable rates means motivated sellers, buyer leverage, and price discipline — the conditions that make 2026 the entry point that 2018 and 2019 buyers look back on as the last great Markham buying window before the subsequent appreciation cycle.

What This Means for Markham Sellers Right Now

The hold does not change the seller’s market reality: pricing accurately matters more in June 2026 than at any point in the past five years. Buyers have rate stability and inventory to be patient. The sellers who are positioned and priced correctly before July 15 will benefit from both the cut scenario and the hike scenario — because both create motivation in the market, just for different buyer profiles.

The next Bank of Canada announcement is July 15, 2026, when the full Monetary Policy Report will be released — providing the Bank’s updated growth and inflation projections. Michael John Lau and Neeraj Moolchandani, top real estate agents in Markham Ontario, are actively working with buyers and sellers who understand that the conditions for a disciplined, professionally guided Markham real estate transaction in 2026 are as favourable as they have been in years. This is not a market for passive observers. It is a market for prepared, informed, professionally guided participants.