The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced today, April 17, 2025, that it will maintain its overnight rate at 2.75%. This decision was widely expected as inflation continues to trend closer to the Bank’s 2% target, but economic growth remains modest.

For Canadians thinking about buying or selling a home, today’s rate hold offers important signals about where mortgage rates and housing affordability could be headed next.

Why Did the Bank of Canada Hold Rates?

The BoC’s primary job is to manage inflation and support a healthy economy. Although inflation has cooled significantly from its 2022-2023 highs, it's still slightly above the 2% target. At the same time, GDP growth has slowed, and job markets show early signs of softening.

In its statement, the Bank emphasized that while progress is being made, it remains cautious. “We are prepared to increase rates again if needed to ensure inflation returns to target,” the BoC noted. However, for now, policymakers believe current rates are appropriate to continue balancing economic stability.

How Today’s Decision Impacts Mortgage Rates

With the Bank’s overnight rate staying at 2.75%, variable-rate mortgages are expected to remain stable in the near term. Fixed mortgage rates, which are influenced more by bond markets, have been trending lower in anticipation of potential rate cuts later in 2025.

Many lenders are now offering 5-year fixed rates between 4.8% and 5.2%, depending on the borrower’s credit and down payment. While these rates are higher than pre-pandemic lows, they offer more certainty compared to variable options in a still-volatile environment.

Buyers considering their next move should connect with a trusted mortgage broker to lock in competitive rates — especially if rate cuts are delayed further.

Is Buyer Confidence Ready for a Comeback?

Recent surveys show a complex picture of the Canadian economy. An Ipsos poll revealed that 73% of Canadians are holding off on major purchases due to economic uncertainty. Yet, 59% report feeling secure in their personal finances — a sign that consumer spending could quickly bounce back if conditions improve.

The real estate market, however, has stumbled out of the gate this year. National home sales dropped 9.3% year-over-year in March, one of the slowest showings for that month in recent memory. The downturn mirrored rising trade tensions that weighed heavily on buyer sentiment.

"There’s clear hesitation right now among buyers, with double-digit drops in sales," says Graham. "But with tariff threats easing and mortgage rates slightly lower, there’s real potential for momentum to return. If confidence rebounds and the Canadian economy stays strong, we could see a much-needed spring boost in real estate activity."

As always, the path forward will depend heavily on the evolving trade situation and broader economic indicators.

Spring 2025: Opportunities Emerging for GTA Home Buyers

In today’s uncertain economy, big financial moves might seem intimidating but in real estate, timing is everything. Right now, buyers across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) could be stepping into a rare moment of opportunity.

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) March 2025 report, the national sales-to-new-listings ratio has dropped to 45.9%, the lowest since 2009. A balanced market typically sits between 40% and 60%, but today’s numbers are tipping toward buyer-friendly conditions and the GTA is feeling the shift.

Spring usually brings fierce competition and rising home prices, but this year, softer demand is keeping price growth in check. In fact, the GTA saw a 2.5% year-over-year price decrease in March 2025 — a drop of over $25,000 from 2024. For many buyers who were priced out in recent years, this could be the opening they've been waiting for.

Inventory is building, competition is easing, and buyers have more room to negotiate a big change from the red-hot bidding wars of the past few spring markets.

That said, not every neighborhood is cooling equally. Some pockets of the GTA, particularly those just outside the downtown core, are offering even better value, while prime areas are holding steadier.

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

• Mortgage rates remain relatively stable, but small shifts could happen quickly it’s smart to secure a rate hold if you're planning a move soon.
• Housing inventory is increasing in many markets, creating opportunities for buyers.
• Home sellers should still see solid interest but may need to negotiate more as supply grows.

Overall, the Bank of Canada’s rate pause brings a moment of stability to an unpredictable few years for real estate and lending.

In a market like this, working with a knowledgeable GTA real estate professional is key. The right agent will help you spot emerging deals, navigate shifting conditions, and secure the best possible outcome — whether you're buying your first condo, upsizing to a detached home, or investing for the future.  Thinking about buying or selling a home in the Greater Toronto Area?
Schedule a consultation with us now! 

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